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Can Resumes Predict the 2008 Presidential Races?

Except for John F. Kennedy and Dwight Eisenhower, no one has been elected President of the United States in nearly 80 years who had not previously served as a state governor or Vice President. From Franklin Roosevelt to George W. Bush (what a span of talent!), Americans have mostly chosen state chief executives, also including Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. Sitting and former Vice Presidents who were elected include Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson (both elected on their own after the death of their predecessor), plus Richard Nixon and George H. W. Bush. Eisenhower, as Supreme Allied Commander in Europe during World War II, also was a prominent executive.

Among likely Democratic candidates for President, only Bill Richardson (AZ) and Tom Vilsack (IA) have served as governor. Hillary Clinton, Barach Obama, and John Edwards have been senators, though Clinton can claim White House experience. Among leading Republican candidates, only Mitt Romney (MA) has led a state government, joined by possible contenders George Pataki (NY) and Mike Huckabee (AR). Much of former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's support among Republican voters has been his perceived leadership following the 9/11 hijackings. John McCain (AZ), Chuck Hagle (NE), and Sam Brownback (KS) serve as senators. There are also candidates in each party who serve in the U. S. House, having never been elected state-wide.

It is not likely coincidence that former executives win most presidential elections. Commentators note that they have the advantage of showing leadership and specific accomplishments, and do not have the disadvantage of a long voting record that can be exploited by opponents. Sure some governors are failures, but they seldom get a major party nomination.

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